My Take on the Vezina “Controversy”
June 16th, 2008 by MikeThere are two good opposing arguments in the Nabby vs. Brodeur debate. PJ from Sharkspage titled his post “Evgeni Nabokov finished second to Martin Brodeur in Vezina voting, rest of NHL scratches its collective head”. And on the other side, James Mirtles calls his “Nabokov Didn’t Deserve the Vezina.”
The crux of the argument comes down to save percentage. Brodeur clearly had a better save percentage than Nabby, .920 to .910. And as several have pointed out, Brodeur faced about 200 more shots than Nabby did over the course of the season. If you look at other stats, they all seem to favor Nabby- wins, shutouts, goals against. But, the critics argue, those stats are team-based stats, unlike save percentage. The fact that the Sharks were a very good team helped Nabby.
One thing I’ll admit to- save percentage is more of an individual stat than, say, wins. The real question is, how much more? To illustrate that point, if the Sharks took a shot every time they got inside the red line (and got it on goal), they’d rack up amazing shot totals, probably 40 to 50 a game. Those 80-footers are easy pickings for pretty much any goalie that’s played hockey more than a month. So the opposing goalie would look like Patrick Roy on the juice, with a .970 save percentage or more. Vezina time!
Nabby faced 23.7 shots per 60 minutes of playing time, Brodeur 27.0. That’s about 230 shots over the course of a season. Let’s take a wild-assed guess, and estimate those extra 3.3 shots per game were not great shots, shots maybe from the point, shots that could have been blocked. The Sharks blocked 1045 shots, the Devils 921. If you say Nabby would have made those extra 230 saves, then his save percentage jumps to .920 as well.
It’s a woulda-shoulda-coulda argument, but to all of those that think save percentage is the be-all, end-all goalie stat, you’re sorely mistaken. It might be one of the best we have now, but it’s far from perfect. Myself? I don’t particularly agree with either of PJ or Mirtle. In fact (and you might want to sit down for this), I actually agree with E.J. Hradek. It’s a damn close call. And I probably would have voted for Brodeur.
To all those Sharks fans in despair, I say, it ain’t all that bad. I think it’s actually better to have a player that (arguably) should have won the trophy than one that actually won it. It’ll save us a few million bucks down the line when Nabby’s contract is up.
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One Response to “My Take on the Vezina “Controversy””
By SoCalSharksGirl on Jun 16, 2008
Great write-up, and it does make me feel a little more relieved when I think of having to resign him down the road. I love how you breakdown the save percentage aspect for everyone to see, and show that he would have been equal if the guys in front of him weren’t a little bit better at blocking shots.